ASHEVILLE – More than six years ago, as conflicts over short-term vacation rentals were playing out in impassioned City Council debates and political campaigns, the premier company behind the rental business model released some eye-opening data.
In 2016, Asheville (including some areas that were just on its outskirts but shared Asheville ZIP codes) generated $13.1 million in Airbnb sales. That was more than Raleigh, Charlotte, Durham and Wilmington combined. Each of those cities had bigger populations than Asheville ― and Wilmington was a major tourist hub. The Buncombe County Tourism Development Authority presented a larger number that included the entire county and more platforms than Airbnb, such as VRBO, at $18.7 million.
The numbers were so astounding that Mayor Esther Manheimer used them as examples in a 2017 council debate over banning STVRs from parts or most of the city. Asheville was facing a housing crisis and fears of losing its identity as a place primarily for residents, not tourists.
“I think it’s safer to proceed with caution,” Manheimer said, rather than have to “wind it back” once it’s already happened.”
Seven years later, a Citizen Times analysis of new vacation rental numbers, shows the breadth of that unwinding.
The analysis did not seek to pinpoint where the STVRs were in the county, but focused on trying to understand the countywide scope of growth. Asheville has all but banned traditional whole-house vacation rentals, but anecdotal evidence and examination of rental platform maps seems to show a wealth of illegal STVRs in Asheville city limits. The numbers weren’t simple to get, with government agencies possessing the data having to be mindful of new interpretations of state law. For governmental and private groups other motivations, too, might have made them reluctant to share numbers.
Using former Citizen Times reporting and publicly available numbers that could be backed out to find other values, the analysis showed that the countywide STVR sales skyrocketed from $18.7 million in 2016 to $229 million in 2022, a remarkable 1,127% climb. Hotel sales during the same period grew 53%.
The number of vacation rentals countywide, meanwhile, increased 717% in those seven years, from 1,247 in 2016 to 10,187 in 2022. The dates are for local government fiscal years, running from July 1 to June 30.
The data comes at the same time as news of a potential “Airbnb bust,” according to one national real estate analyst, whose tweet drew widespread attention, but was criticized by an economist for a leading STVR research firm.
More:Asheville tourism drops 11%; ‘Real & perceived safety issues’; yet historic sales forecast
The unit numbers came from two different datasets presented at a Jan. 25 Tourism Development Authority meeting. Ashley Greenstein, a spokesperson for the TDA ― a government entity ― did not respond to messages asking for confirmation and comment on the numbers. A spokesperson for Airbnb said the company did not have current sales or tax numbers for Asheville or Buncombe County ― though the company recently released sales numbers for rural counties, including Haywood with $19.8 million for 2022.
The data means STVRs now outnumber the county’s 9,034 hotel rooms.
Former Asheville City Council candidate Andrew Fletcher said that kind of stunning growth has consequences for residents, including tearing apart the “fabric” of neighborhoods. His West End Clingman Avenue Neighborhood has illegal and legal, STVRs he said ― but few families and no children walking the the street.
It also means public efforts, like the $65 million affordable housing bonds passed by city and county voters since 2016, may not be enough.
More:Asheville workers call on TDA to put tourism tax dollars toward affordable housing
“We’re putting money into affordable housing constantly. But what happens when, let’s say, we get 500 units built, but we lose 1,000 existing units to short-term rentals?” said Fletcher, a professional musician and chair of the Asheville Downtown Public Space Management Task Force. “It’s about the net.”
Supporters of STVRs say they actually make up a small percentage of houses and have little effect on housing prices.
Chip Craig, owner of Greybeard Realty based in Black Mountain, said the rentals make up less than 3% of county housing stock and that there isn’t a statistical correlation between STVR growth and housing prices.
“The main reason for the housing crisis is that the construction of housing units hasn’t kept up with the influx of people, not that STVRs are taking away affordable housing options,” said Craig, a former TDA member.
The numbers: 1,000% growth in sales, 700% growth in STVRs
Short-term vacation rental sales in Buncombe County
- FY16: $18.7 million
- FY22: $229 million
- 1,127% growth
Hotel sales
- FY16: $259 million
- FY22: $395 million
- 53% growth
B&B sales
- FY16: $3.1 million
- FY22: $18.1 million
- 480% growth
STVR units in 2016: 1,247
STVR units in 2022: 10,187
Sources: BUNCOMBE COUNTY TOURISM DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (some numbers calculated from TDA data).
Airbnb bust?
The Citizen Times’ seven-year analysis comes while the STVR market is experiencing jitters. In a June 27 tweet, Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli said, “The Airbnb collapse is real.”
Gerli said nationally revenues were down around 40% and could lead to “a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners.”
He listed Asheville as the sixth most destressed market with a 43% drop in revenue per listing. Gerli did not respond to a message from the Citizen Times.
But Jamie Lane, chief economist for Airdna said there was not a collapse happening in revenue per listing. Airdna numbers, Lane said, showed a 3.6% average drop.
“Is it down in 2023? YES. Is it down 40%? NO,” Lane tweeted. His data showed Asheville with a 4.9% decline per listing.
Regulate?
Following hard-fought political battles, in 2018, Asheville banned STRVs in practically every area of the city. (Some formerly permitted vacation rentals could still operate). An exception to the ban on new STVRS are “homestays.” With those, a room or two in a home are rented out to tourists, but a long-time resident must be staying there at the time. Separate kitchens are not allowed.
Now other municipalities are feeling the pressure. Woodfin in November voted to tighten already existing restrictions after complaints about loss of housing and partying guests and, Black Mountain Town Council is exploring regulation.
The county, meanwhile, which has no rules against STRVs, is looking at possible changes.
Board of Commissioners Chair Brownie Newman did not respond to June 30 messages seeking comment. But on Feb. 7 Newman and other commissioners voted unanimously for a state legislative agenda that instructs a county lobbyist to encourage General Assembly members to “oppose any proposals that would limit local government ability to regulate short-term rentals or online marketplaces.”
The county’s newly approved comprehensive plan linked STVRs to the housing crisis, with one passage reading:
“Consider the utilization of available tools to mitigate the loss of year-round housing to short-term rentals. These tools may include but are not limited to restricting short-term rentals to certain zoning districts; establishing design and operation standards such as parking, limits on large events, trash management standards, insurance and safety requirements, and other operational standards supported by the State Statute(s).”
Pushing back on that idea was Airbnb. Company spokesperson Kelly Morro said an Airbnb poll of STVR owners said the income helped many of them stay housed.
“About 47% of hosts surveyed in Buncombe County say the money they earn hosting on Airbnb has helped them stay in their home,” Morro said, adding 58% said the money helped them “cover food and other basic necessities that have become more expensive.”
More:Asheville Airbnbs charge 40% in fees, taxes, Forbes study finds
But former council candidate and downtown spaces task force chair Fletcher, said Airbnb and similar platforms such as VRBO, have made housing even more difficult for locals who aren’t in the business because they “merged the housing and lodging markets” accelerating the prices for both.
Along with people who want to buy homes, that hurts renters like himself, Fletcher said, and that has ripple effects on the economy.
“This data reflects the reality that folks like me are dealing with and that is showing in the low number of resumes submitted for open job positions,” he said.
Joel Burgess has lived in WNC for more than 20 years, covering politics, government and other news. He’s written award-winning stories on topics ranging from gerrymandering to police use of force. Got a tip? Contact Burgess at jburgess@citizentimes.com, 828-713-1095 or on Twitter @AVLreporter. Please help support this type of journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.